When the $5,300 BetMGM Poker Big, Big Championship at Borgata drew 519 entries in September, the field built a prize pool of about $2.6 million at $5,000 per entry. The event carried a $3 million guarantee, so the house had to add roughly $405,000, according to Pokerology. That gap is called an overlay, and learning to find and price overlays is one of the most reliable ways for tournament players to gain value.
This guide explains what overlays are, how to calculate them, and how to use real 2026 examples to decide when a guarantee is genuinely worth chasing.
What Is an Overlay?
A tournament with a guaranteed prize pool promises players a minimum total payout. If entries multiplied by the prize-pool contribution of each buy-in fall short of the guarantee, the operator adds the difference. That shortfall is the overlay.
In the Borgata example, 519 entries at $5,000 each built about $2.6 million. The guarantee was $3 million, so roughly $405,000 was added. Pokerology notes that this overlay raised every payout down to 65th place. Every player in the field effectively received a bonus on top of their buy-in.
The key idea is that an overlay increases your expected return. If you pay $5,300 for an entry and $405,000 is added to a pool shared among 519 entries, the average entry received about $780 of extra equity. For a skilled player who already has an edge, that bonus can turn a marginal event into a clearly profitable one.
How to Calculate Overlay Value
You can estimate the value of an overlay with simple maths.
- Prize-pool contribution per entry: the part of the buy-in that goes into the prize pool (buy-in minus fee).
- Expected entries: based on previous editions, the registration pace and late registration.
- Expected prize pool: entries multiplied by contribution.
- Overlay: guarantee minus expected prize pool, if positive.
- Overlay per entry: overlay divided by expected entries.
In the Borgata case, the per-entry overlay was roughly $405,000 / 519, or around $780. Relative to a $5,000 contribution, that is about a 15.6 percent boost. A player with a 0 percent return on investment (ROI) in a normal event would, in theory, have had a positive return thanks to the overlay.
You can use the same approach for any event. Our poker odds calculator helps with in-hand decisions, but for tournament selection, a simple spreadsheet will do.
Why Overlays Happen
Aggressive Guarantees
Operators set big guarantees to attract attention. Sometimes they miss. The Borgata event is one example, where a $3 million guarantee exceeded what 519 entries could generate.
Multi-Flight Uncertainty
Events with several starting flights are hard to predict. PokerNews reported on the PokerNews Online Championship at 888, where the Mystery Main Event carries a $250,000 guarantee and a $250 buy-in. Whether that guarantee is covered depends on turnout across multiple Day 1 flights.
Late Registration Behaviour
Many players register at the last minute, so early entry counts can be misleading. Overlays are often visible only near the close of registration.
Saturated Calendars
When several big events overlap, fields fragment. Autumn is crowded: WSOP Circuit Pompano Beach has a $1 million guarantee on a $1,700 Main Event, La Notte Degli Assi in Venice has a €1 million guarantee on €400 to €600 buy-ins, and online series run in parallel.
Real Examples to Study
La Notte Degli Assi, Venice
Pokerology reports a €1 million guaranteed Main Event with discounted €400 buy-ins for the first four flights and €600 for later ones. The series' best-attended Italian stop was in Campione in 2010, with more than 750 entries. At face value, covering €1 million at those prices would require well over 1,500 entries, so overlay potential is real, though multiple re-entries could change the numbers. This is an example of how historical attendance helps you estimate risk.
WSOP Circuit Pompano Beach
The $1,700 Main Event has a $1 million guarantee. Rake and fees reduce the prize pool contribution per entry, so the number of entries needed to cover the guarantee is higher than a simple division suggests. Players should check final entry counts as late registration closes.
BetRivers Poker Championship
PokerNews reported that 66 events produced 12,141 entrants and $410,333 in prize money, with the series on pace to surpass $600,000 in guarantees. With so many events, some will run short and some will exceed guarantees. Picking events with soft fields and potential overlay is part of the grind.
Strategies for Using Overlays
1. Wait and Watch
If an event has late registration, monitor the entries. When registration approaches the cut-off and the prize pool is clearly below the guarantee, entering late can be profitable, provided you have enough chips relative to the blinds. Check how much late registration time remains and what your effective stack will be.
2. Focus on Familiar Structures
An overlay is worth more if you are a strong player in that format. A deep-stack structure with 200,000 chips and 30-minute levels, such as La Notte's Main Event, rewards skill more than a turbo.
3. Don't Ignore Rake
Overlay is not a free lunch if the fee is high. A $1,700 buy-in with a large fee contributes less to the pool. Compare the fee percentage across events.
4. Beware of Variance
Even with positive expected value, tournaments are volatile. A 15 percent overlay boost won't protect you from a string of busts. Keep entries within your bankroll management limits.
5. Consider Satellites Carefully
Satellites into guaranteed events may have overlays too. If a satellite awards seats rather than cash, the value depends on the target event's guarantee and how many seats are awarded.
Overlays vs Rakeback and Bonuses
Overlays are one type of value; others include rakeback and deposit bonuses. They aren't mutually exclusive. A player who combines rakeback with consistent overlay hunting can reduce the long-term cost of playing. Also consider the type of event: Mystery bounty and PKO events change how equity is distributed. Our explanations of pot odds and ICM help you adjust decisions once you're in.
Online Options
Online operators also run big guarantees. Compare the structures on our tournaments page and check the reviews of Americas Cardroom, BetOnline and BC Poker for details on tournament formats, rake and promotions. Remember that availability depends on your location.
Risks and Limits
Overlays can disappear quickly if a late rush of entries covers the guarantee. They also may be reduced if organisers adjust the prize structure. And remember that being in a +EV situation doesn't guarantee a profit in any single event. Play only with money you can afford to lose.
If you start to chase value at the expense of your well-being, take a step back. Managing tilt is as important as picking the right events.
Final Thoughts
The Borgata overlay of roughly $405,000 was a gift to the 519 players who entered. For observant players, similar opportunities appear regularly across live and online schedules. By learning to estimate entries, calculate overlay per player and consider rake, you can pick events with better odds of long-term profit. Use the numbers, stay disciplined, and let the guarantees work for you.