A preflop equity cheat sheet is one of the fastest ways to improve at tournament poker, and the best examples are real hands that decided real money. This week's Poker Masters in Las Vegas produced a collection of all-in confrontations, from pocket aces running into pocket nines to a short stack shoving queen-jack into aces. This article turns those hands into a reference table of preflop equities you can memorize, and explains how to use them at the table.
All hand histories come from PokerNews and Card Player coverage of the tournament. The equity percentages are our own simulations, using standard suit assignments consistent with the reports where known, and are accurate to roughly a percentage point.
Why equity matters
Equity is your share of the pot if all remaining cards were dealt out without further betting. If you have 60 percent equity, you win the pot 60 percent of the time on average. Our what is equity page explains the concept, and the poker odds guide shows how to convert it into decisions.
The reason to memorize common matchups is speed. At the table you rarely have time to run a calculator, but you can recognize a pattern: pair against overcards, domination, or a flip. The poker odds calculator on our site can verify any matchup after the session.
The hands and their equities
| Hand matchup | Event and context | Equity (first hand listed) |
|---|---|---|
| Pocket aces vs. pocket nines | Mateos vs. Craig Mason, Event 1 | About 80% |
| Ace-king vs. suited jack-nine | Mateos vs. Michael Rossitto, Event 3 | About 60% |
| Ace-seven suited vs. pocket nines | Mateos vs. Chris Hunichen, Event 4 | About 33% |
| Ace-nine vs. ace-six suited | Mateos vs. Nicholas Palma, Event 2 | About 65% |
| Ace-six vs. seven-three | Jamie Dwan vs. Clemen Deng, Event 4 | About 63% |
| Queen-jack vs. pocket aces | Andrew Lichtenberger vs. Deng, Event 4 | About 16% |
| Ace-queen vs. ace-six vs. pocket sevens | Mateos, Chorlian, Vaysman, Event 6 | About 37% / 10% / 54% |
Hand details come from the PokerNews and Card Player reports; the precise suits of several hands were not published, so there may be small differences from the real equities on the day.
The five patterns to memorize
Almost every preflop all-in falls into one of five categories. The table above includes an example of each.
1. Pair versus lower pair: about 80 to 20
Aces against nines is a typical example. The bigger pair is roughly an 80 percent favorite, and the underdog wins about one time in five. Mateos was on the wrong side of that fifth time in Event 1. Remember that "about 80 to 20" holds for any overpair against a lower pair, with small variations depending on the cards involved.
2. Two overcards versus a pair: the classic flip
Ace-king against a middle pair is close to a coin flip. A pair is generally a small favorite, around 55 percent, while two overcards need to hit. Our table does not have a perfect example from this week, but ace-queen against pocket sevens in a three-way pot (Event 6) is close: Vaysman's sevens had about 54 percent against two live overcards, with Mateos at 37 percent and Chorlian at 10 percent.
3. Domination: about 65 to 35 for the better kicker
When a hand shares a card with another and has the better kicker, it is a clear favorite. Ace-nine against ace-six, as in Event 2, is a 65 percent proposition for the better kicker. A king-queen against ace-jack is a similar situation in reverse: it is close to a flip, since each hand dominates the other in one respect. Dwan's ace-six against seven-three is not domination at all, but it behaves similarly: a high-card hand with two overcards to a worse holding wins roughly 63 percent.
4. High cards versus connected cards: 60 to 40
Ace-king against suited jack-nine, as in Event 3, is about a 60 to 40 situation. The suited, connected-ish hand keeps its drawing potential, so it is never dead. Mateos was the favorite and lost.
5. Underdog against a pair: about one in three
Ace-seven suited against pocket nines in Event 4 shows the typical underdog share. An ace-high hand needs to pair or hit a flush draw, and it does so about a third of the time. That is a big chunk. It also explains why short-stack shoves with ace-x suited hands are profitable even when called by pairs.
How to use the numbers
When you are the one calling
Compare your equity to the price you are being offered. If you must call $1 to win $3, you need more than 25 percent equity. Lichtenberger's queen-jack against aces was behind at 16 percent, so a call would not have been profitable for him, but the all-in was a shove, not a call. When you are shoving, you must factor in fold equity, which we cover in our piece on short-stack shoving.
When you are the one shoving
A shove wins if the opponent folds, and otherwise you play for equity. A hand like ace-six has 63 percent equity against a wide calling range, which is why it is often an easy shove at around 10 to 15 big blinds. Against a narrow range, such as aces and kings, its equity collapses.
When you are in a multiway pot
In three-way pots, equities shift. Ace-queen is a strong holding heads-up against ace-six, but when a pocket pair joins the pot, its equity drops to roughly 37 percent. If you hold an overpair or a medium pair, multiway pots can improve your relative position. The general rule is that the more players in the pot, the more valuable made hands are compared with high-card holdings.
Equity versus ICM
In a tournament, equity in chips is not the same as equity in prize money. A favorite with 60 percent chip equity may have less than 60 percent of the prize-pool equity if the money is close. Our ICM guide explains why. On a money bubble like Event 6's, the cost of busting is the whole cash, so the equity you need to risk your tournament life is higher than the raw pot odds suggest. The exact threshold depends on stacks and payouts.
Practice drills
- Memorize the five patterns. Say them aloud while you play an online session.
- Review hands after your session. Pick five all-ins and test your guesses with the odds calculator.
- Run quizzes with a friend. Pick a pair of hands and guess the equity.
- Combine equity with pot odds. Learn the pot odds formula so you can make quick call decisions.
- Study the hand rankings. If you are new, our hand rankings and Texas Hold'em guides are a good starting point.
Online rooms are the best place to practice because you see so many hands. Our reviews of BetOnline and Americas Cardroom cover the tournament selection and rakeback available at those sites, and the beginner poker sites page lists friendly options for new players.
The takeaway
Poker is a game of probabilities, and the best players internalize them. This week's Poker Masters hands show that even the world's best players spend a lot of time as favorites that lose and underdogs that win. If you remember the five patterns and use them at the table, you will make faster and more accurate decisions, and you will be less surprised by the outcomes.