Phil Hellmuth's search for a first WPT title goes on. The 17-time WSOP bracelet winner was eliminated in 20th place for $22,200 on Day 3 of the $5,000 WPT Venetian Las Vegas Fall Championship, when his last ten big blinds went in with ace-queen against pocket jacks. The hand was a classic coin flip, except it was not quite one: ace-queen is a clear underdog against a pair of jacks. With nine players left and the final table set to play on Tuesday, November 10, at noon Las Vegas time, here is what happened, who is left and what the numbers say.
The Event at a Glance
According to PokerNews, the tournament began on Thursday, November 5, 2026, at The Venetian Las Vegas and drew 510 entries to build a $2,346,000 prize pool. Day 3 took place on Monday, November 9. Only six of the nine remaining players will reach the official final table, and the nine are guaranteed at least $45,000.
The winner receives $446,800 plus a $10,400 entry into the WPT World Championship at Wynn Las Vegas. We previewed the schedule in our WPT Venetian Fall Festival coverage, and this is the follow-up as the field reaches its closing stage.
How Hellmuth Went Out
Hellmuth began Day 3 with 18 big blinds and sat 22nd in chip counts. With three tables remaining, he committed his last ten big blinds with ace-queen. Nick Pupillo held pocket jacks. Neither an ace nor a queen arrived, and Hellmuth was out in 20th for $22,200. Shannon Shorr had been eliminated one spot earlier, in 21st for $19,500.
Per PokerNews, Hellmuth's reaction was a mix of disappointment and perspective. He said poker can be frustrating, credited some earlier luck (including a win with ace-queen against ace-king), and said he felt he had a strong chance to chip up against a field he saw as playing too aggressively. He added that he did not want to dwell on complaints and was grateful for what he has.
The Math: Was This a Coin Flip?
Players often call any pair-versus-two-overcards situation a "coin flip," but it is worth being precise. Ace-queen against pocket jacks is a pair versus two overcards where both of the underdog's cards are higher than the pair. In general terms, the pair is a modest favourite, roughly 55 to 45 in a typical matchup, with exact figures depending on suits. You can run any matchup yourself in our poker odds calculator and read more about the concept in our equity glossary page.
At ten big blinds with an ante in play, the shove is standard. Hellmuth had few alternatives: with fewer than 15 big blinds, hands like ace-queen are strong enough to be committed, and the cost of waiting is high as blinds and antes erode the stack. If he had folded, he would have remained a short stack facing rising costs. This is the territory covered by our ICM guide: near a pay jump, risk is priced differently, but at ten big blinds with three tables left, survival value is limited and chip accumulation matters.
The honest takeaway is that the decision was sound and the result was one of the ordinary outcomes. Over many repetitions Hellmuth wins this hand roughly four to five times out of ten.
Hellmuth and the WPT Title Question
The article notes Hellmuth still lacks a WPT Championship title. His best WPT results include runner-up at the 2017 WPT Legends of Poker for $364,370 and seventh in the 2010 WPT World Championship for $152,856. His WPT tournament earnings now exceed $1.6 million. Earlier this month he cashed for $11,400 at WPT Bay 101 Shooting Star in San Jose, which we examined in our Bay 101 hand analysis. The PokerNews piece notes his recollection of that finish was slightly off, as official results list him 42nd.
Compare that with his WSOP résumé: 17 bracelets, more than any other player. The WPT gap is a notable blank on the record, and it is partly a matter of format. Hellmuth plays selectively and WPT main events are typically fixed-schedule events with large fields, so the number of attempts he has had is limited compared with the decades he has spent at the WSOP. Still, the quest is part of his public persona and helps explain why every near-miss gets attention.
The Final Table Picture
Per PokerNews, the nine remaining players and their chip counts:
| Seat | Player | Chips | Big blinds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nick Pupillo | 6,400,000 | 107 |
| 1 | Nick Yunis | 4,155,000 | 69 |
| 5 | Daniyal Gheba | 3,270,000 | 55 |
| 8 | Craig Mason | 2,585,000 | 43 |
| 6 | Sonny Lee | 2,235,000 | 37 |
| 3 | Mohammad Pourmandi | 1,825,000 | 30 |
| 7 | Matt Affleck | 1,775,000 | 30 |
| 2 | Raman Afanasenka | 1,690,000 | 28 |
| 9 | Anthony Piacquadio | 1,565,000 | 26 |
Pupillo, the player who eliminated Hellmuth, leads with 107 big blinds, around 1.5 times the next stack. The average stack is a little over 3 million, so the chip leader holds roughly twice the average.
The Payouts
| Place | Prize |
|---|---|
| 1st | $446,800 |
| 2nd | $280,000 |
| 3rd | $209,000 |
| 4th | $155,000 |
| 5th | $117,000 |
| 6th | $88,000 |
| 7th | $67,000 |
| 8th | $52,500 |
| 9th | $45,000 |
The pay jumps from 9th to 6th are modest compared with the climb from 3rd to 1st, which means early final-table decisions are mostly about accumulating chips, while the real ICM pressure builds near the top. A 9th-place finish pays $45,000; first pays nearly ten times that.
What This Means for Players
Short-stack shoving ranges are not about feelings. Hellmuth's exit is a good reminder to study push-fold ranges before you need them. At ten big blinds, a hand like ace-queen is a shove in most situations. Our poker strategy hub has links to tournament study resources.
Variance is the great equaliser. A 17-time bracelet winner busts to a 55 percent shot like anyone else. For recreational players that is both humbling and encouraging: skill edges in tournaments are real but small per hand, which is why bankroll management matters so much in multi-table events.
Think about tournament versus cash value. If you enjoy the thrill of live tournaments but dislike variance, our comparison of cash games vs tournaments can help you choose.
Find events that suit your budget. WPT main events carry large buy-ins, but our tournaments page lists a range of formats.
Play online if you cannot travel. Several online rooms spread major tournaments year-round; see our real money poker guide and reviews such as Americas Cardroom for options.
Why the Final Table Is Worth Watching
With nine players, a chip leader, and several mid-stacks between 26 and 37 big blinds, this final table has the ingredients for an aggressive start. Players at 26 to 30 big blinds have enough room to maneuver but not enough to wait out the table. The stream begins at noon Las Vegas time, and the winner joins a long list of WPT champions. For Hellmuth, the next chance will come at a future stop. For the players still in it, the focus is on a title worth $446,800 and a seat in the WPT World Championship.
We will update this page with the winner once the final table concludes.