Sports betting advertising has a new kind of fight on its hands, and it is being waged by a Hollywood actress in a pair of football-themed commercials. Novig, a sports-focused prediction exchange, released a second ad featuring Sydney Sweeney on October 11, 2026, and this one goes well beyond brand awareness. According to GamblingNews, the 30-second spot makes pointed jokes about insider trading, automated trading bots and contracts tied to wars and political events, without naming a single competitor. It is a window into how prediction markets and sports betting are now competing not just for customers but for the moral high ground.
For readers of our sportsbook section, the ad is worth understanding because the products it mocks and the products it promotes are both pulling bettors away from traditional sportsbooks.
What the Second Ad Does
The commercial is part of a campaign that began in September. In the latest instalment, Sweeney wears Novig-branded underwear and uses footballs to cover herself while joking about people making spreadsheets to predict her underwear colour. The gag then pivots into jokes about insider trading, bots and bets tied to wars and political events.
Sweeney does not name rivals, but the article says her comments appear aimed at prediction markets that offer political and world-event contracts. Novig, by contrast, limits its trading products to what it calls "sporting events." The ad therefore doubles as a positioning statement: sports only, no politics, no war markets.
That positioning matters because the loudest controversies in prediction markets this year have not been about sports. Our coverage of Ohio's cease-and-desist letters to prediction market operators, the state-by-state legal fights over Kalshi and Utah's lawsuit seeking restitution shows how regulators have focused on the sports contracts, but public concern has often centred on markets tied to elections and geopolitical events.
The Backlash
The first ad in the campaign drew criticism from athletes. Australian swimmer Ariarne Titmus, British sprinter Amy Hunt and American gymnast Gracie Kramer objected to the campaign's portrayal of women, questioning whether it emphasised appearance over athletic achievement. That is a separate argument from the one about market integrity, but it illustrates how marketing for betting and betting-adjacent products now attracts scrutiny from several directions at once.
Sweeney holds an equity stake in Novig, though the percentage has not been disclosed. That means she is a stakeholder as well as a spokesperson, which gives the campaign more of a founder-story feel than a typical celebrity endorsement.
Does the Advertising Work?
Novig's chief executive, Jacob Fortinsky, says it does. He said trading volume rose by almost 94 percent in the 20 days before and after the first ad's debut. The company's own comparison window also included the start of the NFL season, which naturally lifts betting activity across the whole industry, so the figure is not a clean measure of the ad's impact. It is still a useful data point about how aggressively the company is investing in brand recognition.
Context: Novig launched its sports-focused exchange nationwide on August 4, and earlier industry reporting put its US trading volume at $125 million in the first week. The company has replaced American-style odds with percentage-based probabilities, a design choice that reflects the exchange model. On an exchange, you are buying and selling contracts priced between zero and 100 percent, rather than taking odds from a bookmaker.
Why the Insider-Trading Joke Is Not Just a Joke
The ad's references to insider trading and bots tap into real stories. The same GamblingNews article notes that Kalshi is reportedly reviewing trades placed before a high-profile White House appointment was announced, and that in April US authorities charged a soldier who allegedly used classified information to make more than $400,000 on Polymarket contracts tied to an operation targeting Venezuela's president. Those are allegations and charges, not findings, but they explain why Novig is leaning on the topic.
The broader point is structural. Traditional sportsbooks cap bets, limit winning players and set odds with a margin. Prediction exchanges match buyers with sellers and generally charge fees on trades. That design can be attractive to sharp bettors, but it also means information matters in a different way. A contract on a political or military event can, in principle, be traded by someone with privileged knowledge. Sports contracts have their own integrity concerns, such as injury information or manipulation, but regulators have historically had tools for those risks. By restricting itself to sports, Novig is arguing it avoids the worst of the information-asymmetry problem. Whether that argument convinces regulators is a separate question.
The Legal Backdrop
Novig has sued several states, arguing that federal regulation should exempt its sports contracts from state gambling laws. That puts it on the same side as other exchanges in a legal contest that has not been settled. Courts have not spoken with one voice, and the question of whether sports event contracts are federally regulated swaps or state-regulated bets is heading towards higher courts. In practical terms, a bettor's access to these products can change by state and by month. If you are weighing a prediction exchange against a licensed sportsbook, check the legal position where you live before depositing.
Why This Matters to Poker and Sportsbook Players
The overlap between poker and sports betting audiences is large. Many players who grind tournaments also bet football on the weekend, and the same offshore and regulated operators often serve both. That makes the exchange model a competitive threat to traditional books, and it is why we cover it on a site that is primarily about poker.
Here is what it means in practice:
Different pricing. Exchanges show a market probability and a fee rather than a bookmaker's margin. For bettors comfortable with the maths, that can offer better prices on some markets; for casual bettors, the interface may be less familiar. Our sportsbooks hub explains how traditional books work.
Different protections. Licensed sportsbooks operate under state or national gambling regulators with defined responsible-gambling requirements. Exchange products may fall under a different regime, and in some states they face active enforcement. See our reviews of BetOnline Sportsbook, SportsBetting.ag and TigerGaming Sportsbook for how offshore sportsbooks compare on limits, banking and support.
Different risk of integrity issues. Markets tied to politics or world events attract concern about insider information. Even if you only trade sports, it helps to understand why regulators are watching the sector closely.
Bankroll discipline still applies. Whether you are betting NFL totals or entering a poker tournament, the principles in our bankroll management guide apply: stake only what you can afford to lose and avoid chasing losses.
What to Watch Next
Three threads are worth following. First, whether more celebrity-led campaigns emerge as exchanges compete for new customers. Second, whether regulators treat marketing that mocks rivals as a consumer-protection issue or simply as competition. Third, whether the courts settle the jurisdiction question, because the answer will determine whether exchanges such as Novig operate nationally or state by state.
The Sweeney ads are, on the surface, a marketing stunt. Underneath, they show an industry in transition, one where the product, the regulation and the reputation of the whole category are all contested at once. For bettors, the best response is the usual one: understand what you are using, know the rules where you live, and treat any ad, however clever, as an invitation to do your own research.